Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9099…518d crypto 230 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$512 (-17%) realized −$512 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%93W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$76
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$495
sports 16% −$46
other 3% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -27.0% -33.9% 34% 34% -42.1%
≤30d 62 -24.4% -31.6% 34% 34% -15.3%
≤90d 230 -14.1% -22.3% 40% 39% -28.0%
all 230 -14.1% -22.3% 40% 39% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 39% -28.0%
10% -29.7% 39% -34.9%
15% -36.5% 33% -41.2%
20% -42.7% 27% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$512
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses93 / 137
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)230 / 230
History coverage72d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 230 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$19 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 08 $16 +$9 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $6 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $6 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $8 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 888 history records