Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:18:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9098…ab35 other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate28%22W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$2
other 31% +$1
politics 17% −$2
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 +1.9% -7.8% 30% 10% -9.7%
≤90d 20 +1.9% -7.8% 30% 10% -9.7%
all 78 -0.1% -9.7% 28% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 4% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses22 / 56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage301d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $68 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $39 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $68 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $48 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $69 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $36 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $87 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2 $0 +18%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $17 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 24 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $35 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 24 $7 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $7 $0 +6%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $36 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $4 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $32 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $36 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 24h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 41h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 41h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $26 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $7 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $33 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $15 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $17 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 376 history records