Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:13:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9098…3e35 politics 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$9
politics 34% −$9
sports 11% −$38
tech 6% −$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 112 -4.0% -13.1% 12% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 4% -9.8%
10% -21.5% 4% -18.4%
15% -29.0% 1% -26.3%
20% -36.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 98
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage132d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $188 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $185 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $347 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $149 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $180 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $195 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $137 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $147 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $146 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $183 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $351 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 16 $171 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $365 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $190 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $144 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 11 $336 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $388 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $176 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $304 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $163 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,285 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $350 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $181 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $164 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $204 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $158 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $178 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $177 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 13 $202 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 12 $187 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $203 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $200 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 06 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $280 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 12h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 12h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 24h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $33 26h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $33 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 19d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 19d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $30 21d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $30 21d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 21d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 22d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 22d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 22d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $139 22d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $139 23d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $149 25d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $149 26d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $180 26d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $180 26d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $195 26d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $195 26d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $162 27d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $162 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 331 history records