Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
90 0x908c…953b other 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%14W / 84L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% $0
politics 19% −$6
economics 6% −$2
sports 4% +$39
world 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 +5.2% -4.8% 14% 10% -9.4%
all 98 +5.2% -4.8% 14% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 10% -9.4%
10% -13.9% 10% -18.1%
15% -22.2% 9% -26.0%
20% -29.9% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses14 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage91d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $193 $193 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $359 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $341 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 06 $82 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 06 $127 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $358 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $374 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $299 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 15 $298 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $315 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $328 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $315 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 05 $323 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 04 $312 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $329 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 02 $323 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 02 $295 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $325 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $311 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $301 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,129 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $332 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $587 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $336 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $328 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $304 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $597 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $335 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $308 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $317 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $369 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $312 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $912 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $193 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 3d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 5d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 10d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 11d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 20d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $82 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 21d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 21d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 22d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 22d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 25d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 25d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $52 26d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $52 26d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 28d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 28d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $127 28d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $299 31d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $299 31d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $297 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.88 · official $192.88 (match) · 285 history records