Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:34:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x908b…a02a crypto 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$648 (-4%) realized −$714 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate78%88W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3,234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$166
14 days+$82
30 days−$865
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$828
world 26% −$18
finance 15% +$191
politics 12% +$122
sports 4% +$112
other 4% −$217
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +7.9% -2.4% 80% 50% -2.3%
≤30d 46 -10.8% -19.3% 72% 30% -18.1%
≤90d 113 -2.3% -11.6% 78% 32% -14.4%
all 113 -2.3% -11.6% 78% 32% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 32% -14.4%
10% -20.0% 11% -22.6%
15% -27.8% 9% -30.1%
20% -34.8% 5% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$67 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$3,234
Realized−$714
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses88 / 25
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions22
Markets (closed)113 / 135
History coverage84d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 90¢ 98¢ $300 $326 +$26 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $276 $298 +$22 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 89¢ 99¢ $268 $297 +$29 (+11%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County? No 94¢ 98¢ $265 $276 +$12 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $231 $248 +$18 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 95¢ 99¢ $219 $228 +$10 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 85¢ 97¢ $200 $228 +$28 (+14%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 80¢ 99¢ $161 $199 +$38 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 92¢ 96¢ $184 $192 +$8 (+4%)
Will Steve Hilton win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election? No 88¢ 99¢ $164 $183 +$20 (+12%)
Will Matt Mahan finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County? No 94¢ 100¢ $149 $158 +$10 (+6%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 91¢ 95¢ $135 $141 +$6 (+5%)
Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County? No 99¢ 100¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 86¢ 89¢ $86 $89 +$3 (+3%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 71¢ 78¢ $78 $85 +$7 (+9%)
Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Orange County? No 91¢ 99¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Will Tom Steyer win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%? No 88¢ 100¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+14%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+12%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Yes 29¢ 3¢ $200 $21 −$179 (-89%)
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05? Yes 71¢ 54¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-24%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 89¢ 92¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $201 +$34 +17%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$86 -86%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$72 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$25 -25%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $101 +$20 +20%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 +$49 +49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $403 +$51 +13%
Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $93 +$9 +10%
Will Katie Porter advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $136 +$9 +6%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 11 $745 +$33 +4%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 08 $183 +$31 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $139 −$115 -83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $188 −$187 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 June 1-7? Jun 01 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? Jun 01 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $395 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 01 $458 −$455 -99%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 Jun 01 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $87 +$10 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $322 +$25 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $28 +$6 +22%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $89 +$7 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $195 +$5 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $964 +$81 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $44 +$6 +12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $564 +$26 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 31 $459 +$23 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $130 −$72 -55%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 30 $48 +$2 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $265 +$37 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $310 +$33 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $451 +$23 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 26 $85 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $374 +$26 +7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $7 −$1 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $13 +$1 +9%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 23 $336 −$208 -62%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $103 −$13 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $34 +$6 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 19? May 20 $74 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $65 +$10 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $57 +$7 +13%
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, May 15 $59 +$6 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 4-10? May 10 $7 +$3 +38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 4-10? May 10 $18 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 12¢ $14 45m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $174 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 82¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 48¢ $76 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 85¢ $201 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 18h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $10 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? BUY No 88¢ $403 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 85¢ $202 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $302 8d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el SELL Yes 97¢ $214 8d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $200 12d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $244 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? SELL No 12¢ $21 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? SELL No 12¢ $3 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $185 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 86¢ $87 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? BUY No 94¢ $188 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $129 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $142 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $10 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $26 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $19 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $3 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $29 14d
Will Solana dip to $70 June 1-7? BUY No 96¢ $72 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? BUY No 97¢ $32 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,234.09 · official $3,234.05 (match) · 459 history records