Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:59:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
90 0x908a…3956 sports 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 644d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate64%80W / 45L
Whale WR13%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$65
sports 47% +$43
other 1% −$94
weather 1% $0
crypto 1% −$23
world 0% +$4
finance 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.0% -10.4% 29% 14% -10.3%
≤30d 25 +24.2% +12.4% 48% 40% -9.5%
≤90d 32 +8.6% -1.8% 44% 38% -9.7%
all 125 +5.1% -4.9% 64% 34% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 34% -9.7%
10% -14.0% 27% -18.4%
15% -22.3% 22% -26.3%
20% -29.9% 22% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 13% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

644d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses80 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)13%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage644d
Avg bet$458
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 41¢ 40¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $404 −$3 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,413 −$13 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $914 −$14 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $2,214 −$14 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Jun 20 $11 +$11 +97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? Jun 20 $55 $0 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Viktorija Golubic vs Alycia Parks May 27 $11 +$11 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys May 27 $12 +$16 +134%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $4,026 −$4 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,275 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 27 $13 +$11 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana May 27 $15 +$11 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 27 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $4,711 −$6 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,047 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $5,814 −$4 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $14 +$10 +73%
Roland Garros WTA: Camila Osorio vs Ekaterina Alexandrova May 26 $14 +$11 +76%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 26 $17 +$16 +93%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $5,610 −$9 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns May 25 $17 +$23 +134%
76ers vs. Heat: O/U 243.5 Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Canucks vs. Golden Knights Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Flames vs. Avalanche Apr 14 $19 +$6 +30%
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Mar 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Ducks vs. Canadiens Mar 30 $13 +$18 +138%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 15 $15 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: WHITEBIRD vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Mar 15 $9 +$11 +117%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 15 $25 $0 +0%
Qatar Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev Mar 15 $15 +$12 +75%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Ultra Prime (BO3) Feb 19 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $18 $0 +0%
Australian Open Men's: Giulio Zeppieri vs Rei Sakamoto Jan 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Greet Minnen vs Linda Klimovicova Jan 15 $30 +$41 +138%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Obama divorce in 2025? Jan 14 $3 $0 +11%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Jan 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Decemb Jan 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Dec 02 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 02 $25 $0 +2%
Blue Jackets vs. Maple Leafs Nov 23 $15 +$14 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $364 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $32 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $1,331 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 62¢ $826 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 84¢ $2,200 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 62¢ $42 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.85 · official $11.85 (match) · 446 history records