Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

90
0x9080…a794
world · 38 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$20 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage519d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 2 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 64¢ 64¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -39%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $108 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $126 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $73 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $54 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $280 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $75 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $36 −$13 -35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $12 −$1 -8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $8 +$1 +12%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $3 $0 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $3 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $44 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $289 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $271 +$2 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $6 $0 +4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $401 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? May 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Notre Dame beat Penn State by 2 or more points? Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% −$12
other 22% −$10
politics 18% $0
sports 14% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $10 10h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 13h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 15h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 40h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $33 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 8d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 8d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.2% -13.3% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 -1.8% -11.2% 37% 4% -10.5%
≤90d 33 -1.3% -10.7% 39% 3% -9.9%
all 36 -3.9% -13.1% 42% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 3% -10.4%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.9%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.8%
20% -36.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.03 · official $33.02 (match) · 164 history records