Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:57:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x907c…23c1 sports 1040 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,666 (-6%) realized −$1,633 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%311W / 706L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$102
14 days−$203
30 days−$356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$733
world 20% −$272
finance 18% −$316
politics 10% −$107
sports 9% −$33
culture 4% −$18
tech 3% −$62
crypto 3% −$214
weather 2% −$39
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -15.4% -23.4% 10% 5% -15.5%
≤30d 190 -7.1% -16.0% 34% 27% -13.7%
≤90d 555 -5.8% -14.8% 25% 18% -14.1%
all 1017 -10.3% -18.9% 31% 23% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 23% -15.0%
10% -26.6% 21% -23.2%
15% -33.7% 19% -30.6%
20% -40.2% 15% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized−$1,633
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses311 / 706
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1017 / 1040
History coverage248d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 1017 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-10%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 59¢ 69¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 69¢ 75¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 96¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+14%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 88¢ 93¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 31¢ 11¢ $47 $17 −$30 (-64%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 64¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 51¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-49%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 39¢ 9¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-76%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 251 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $0 $0 +16%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 16 $39 −$1 -4%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 15 $53 −$2 -4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 15 $126 −$8 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $49 −$2 -5%
Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 13 $34 −$2 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $150 +$3 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $167 −$8 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$8 -16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $88 −$20 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $38 −$2 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $60 −$5 -8%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $44 −$13 -29%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $121 −$1 -1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $63 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $300 $0 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $33 −$6 -19%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 10 $75 −$2 -3%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 09 $120 −$1 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $141 +$3 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 07 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $86 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $372 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $161 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 06 $177 −$19 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 06 $21 +$11 +55%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $79 −$4 -5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $52 −$4 -8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $85 +$5 +6%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Dominika Salkova Jun 04 $10 +$10 +97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 04 $34 −$1 -4%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Alina Charaeva Jun 04 $10 +$4 +36%
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 04 $20 $0 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $36 −$2 -5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $104 −$5 -5%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Erika Andreeva Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 03 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $96 −$4 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Heilbronn: Max Schoenhaus vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Laura Samson Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 35¢ $0 1h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia SELL Yes 64¢ $38 1h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 65¢ $39 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 29¢ $0 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 37¢ $10 11h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? SELL Down 52¢ $51 26h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $59 26h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $66 29h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Down 53¢ $53 31h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $47 34h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? SELL Yes 48¢ $47 46h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 46h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 46h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $23 46h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 46h
Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 65¢ $32 2d
Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 88¢ $123 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 89¢ $125 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 76¢ $76 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 77¢ $77 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $43 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 35¢ $68 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 21¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $36 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL No 55¢ $55 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 70¢ $84 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.31 · official $328.31 (match) · 2944 history records