Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

90
0x907b…9a59
other · 48 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$31 -37%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$31 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)40 / 48
History coverage584d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 5 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-10-25? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Wales win on 2025-10-13? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brighton win on 2025-10-25? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Latvia win on 2025-10-14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the election? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? No 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will France win on 2025-10-13? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Israel win on 2025-10-14? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dodgers vs. Brewers Brewers 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paul Biya win the Cameroon Presidential Election? No 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-16? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-10-13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? No 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-25? Oct 29 $1 $0 +24%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $1 $0 +27%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 25 $2 $0 +7%
Will Brighton win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Dodgers vs. Brewers Oct 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paul Biya win the Cameroon Presidential Election? Oct 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel win on 2025-10-14? Oct 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Latvia win on 2025-10-14? Oct 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2025-10-13? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wales win on 2025-10-13? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-10-13? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-16? May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan May 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-11? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-11? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say 'crypto' or 'Bitcoin' during the 2025 State of the Unio Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? Mar 04 $3 $0 +11%
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator? Feb 06 $2 $0 +17%
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days? Jan 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech? Jan 12 $2 $0 +12%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Dec 02 $2 +$2 +78%
Will Leicester win on 2024-11-10? Nov 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 10 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Brighton win on 2024-11-09? Nov 10 $2 +$7 +335%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $7 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% −$4
politics 30% −$7
sports 21% −$11
world 11% −$7
crypto 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a BUY 19¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 53¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 27¢ $2 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 2d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? SELL No 61¢ $1 230d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 230d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? BUY No 48¢ $1 230d
Will Brighton win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 230d
Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 230d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 230d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 230d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No 7¢ $1 230d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 230d
Dodgers vs. Brewers BUY Brewers 48¢ $1 241d
Will Paul Biya win the Cameroon Presidential Election? BUY No 50¢ $1 241d
Will Israel win on 2025-10-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 241d
Will Latvia win on 2025-10-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 241d
Will France win on 2025-10-13? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 242d
Will Wales win on 2025-10-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 242d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-10-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 242d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 242d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-49.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +53.5% +38.9% 75% 75% +32.9%
≤30d 4 +53.5% +38.9% 75% 75% +32.9%
≤90d 4 +53.5% +38.9% 75% 75% +32.9%
all 40 -43.6% -49.0% 32% 28% -47.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.0% 28% -47.7%
10% -53.8% 20% -52.7%
15% -58.3% 12% -57.2%
20% -62.4% 10% -61.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.54 · official $8.15 · 72 history records