Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:02:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x907a…023e crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-23%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate74%26W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -6.0% -15.0% 74% 17% -31.9%
≤30d 35 -6.0% -15.0% 74% 17% -31.9%
≤90d 35 -6.0% -15.0% 74% 17% -31.9%
all 35 -6.0% -15.0% 74% 17% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 17% -31.9%
10% -23.1% 6% -38.4%
15% -30.5% 3% -44.3%
20% -37.3% 0% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses26 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 46m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 26h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 26h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.30 · official $8.30 (match) · 68 history records