Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
90 0x907a…5f8e other 3 markets active 0h ago coverage 192d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$13 (+4%) realized +$31 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 192d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 1 +14.5% +3.6% 100% 100% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 100% +3.6%
10% -6.4% 0% -6.4%
15% -15.4% 0% -15.4%
20% -23.7% 0% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage192d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 75¢ 60¢ $90 $72 −$18 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $100 +$14 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 11m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $110 3h
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 95¢ $114 192d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.53 · official $182.72 (match) · 5 history records