Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9079…b19b sports 578 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$16,577 (+14%) realized +$16,673 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%316W / 410L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day99.9pace
Fees−$983est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$1,835
other 36% +$5,818
world 1% −$1,098
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 228 -53.9% -58.3% 18% 14% -66.4%
≤30d 667 -8.0% -16.8% 42% 34% -17.5%
≤90d 726 -2.9% -12.2% 44% 36% -15.8%
all 726 -2.9% -12.2% 44% 36% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 36% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 28% -23.9%
15% -28.3% 21% -31.2%
20% -35.3% 16% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$98 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized+$16,673
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses316 / 410
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$983
Open positions3
Markets (closed)726 / 578
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$203
Trades / day99.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 726 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 55¢ 45¢ $321 $262 −$58 (-18%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky New York Liberty 56¢ 100¢ $59 $105 +$46 (+78%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 64¢ $24 $29 +$5 (+20%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 40¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 332 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 18 $1 −$30 -2908%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 18 $0 $0 -294%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zhizhen Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade Jun 18 $13 −$13 -101%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-13? Jun 18 $949 −$949 -100%
Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik Jun 18 $371 −$371 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 18 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$9 -253%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $17 +$112 +640%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-10? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Gwangju FC vs. Gangwon FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 −$18 -105%
Will Sporting Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Galaxy end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $3 −$14 -444%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $108 −$108 -100%
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-05-11? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Cordoba: Santiago De La Fuente vs Murkel Dellien Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Zagreb: Jan Choinski vs Arthur Fery Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SD Huesca vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -490%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 18 $11 +$17 +159%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $6 −$37 -669%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-13? Jun 18 $1 −$17 -1223%
Paris: Anastasia Zakharova vs Katie Boulter Jun 18 $9 −$9 -101%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-10? Jun 18 $0 $0 -633%
Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 18 $1 −$26 -2426%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-13? Jun 18 $233 −$236 -102%
Will New England Revolution vs. Nashville SC end in a draw? Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 18 $261 −$261 -100%
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 18 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 18 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 18 $929 −$929 -100%
Brazzaville: Florent Bax vs Calvin Hemery Jun 18 $50 −$55 -108%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Valencia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaume Munar Jun 18 $4 −$9 -244%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $930 −$930 -100%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-05-16? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Paris: Alina Charaeva vs Tamara Korpatsch Jun 18 $14 −$56 -397%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-13? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Gwangju FC win on 2026-05-12? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Atlanta United FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL No 80¢ $64 47m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $64 47m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 40¢ $44 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 56¢ $60 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 78¢ $9 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 79¢ $9 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 79¢ $18 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 92¢ $188 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 82¢ $169 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 85¢ $19 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $20 6h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $6 6h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $6 6h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $6 6h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $6 6h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Nicolas Kicker 33¢ $17 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 71¢ $0 9h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 79¢ $246 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $264 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 81¢ $252 9h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $221 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 81¢ $253 9h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 37¢ $8 10h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 37¢ $8 10h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 37¢ $8 10h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 38¢ $9 10h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 38¢ $9 10h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 38¢ $9 10h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 38¢ $9 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $38 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $397.66 · official $396.84 (match) · 3500 history records