Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:02:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
90 0x9078…fb78 sports 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 244d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$48,016 (+39%) realized +$51,035 · open −$3,019
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$2,696per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,036now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$40,249
other 2% +$3,773
politics 0% −$364
finance 0% +$1,381
world 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 44 +53.5% +38.9% 52% 48% +26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.9% 48% +26.7%
10% ← realistic here +25.6% 43% +14.6%
15% +13.5% 43% +3.5%
20% +2.4% 39% -6.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$2,452) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +114% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,260 vs −$1,284 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$1,036
Realized+$51,035
Unrealized−$3,019
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage244d
Avg bet$2,696
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp $4,006 $1,036 −$2,970 (-74%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Karmine Corp $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $325 +$2,216 +682%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $19,000 +$27,535 +145%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $10,500 −$10,500 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $2,959 −$2,959 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $1,390 +$2,343 +169%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 09 $500 −$500 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 02 $865 +$794 +92%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $929 +$91 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $6,165 +$3,399 +55%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $34,445 +$2,651 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $4,900 +$2,371 +48%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 01 $864 +$360 +42%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 01 $100 +$203 +203%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 01 $80 +$868 +1088%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $3,612 +$11,224 +311%
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? Nov 01 $45 +$116 +258%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 01 $640 +$480 +75%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 31 $30 −$30 -100%
Grokipedia released by October 31? Oct 31 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Oct 31 $944 −$944 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $2,144 −$2,144 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $615 −$615 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 31 $54 +$7 +13%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $185 −$185 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 31 $118 −$118 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $360 −$360 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $7,993 −$7,993 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $7,173 +$11,112 +155%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Oct 31 $511 +$738 +144%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 7? Oct 30 $43 −$43 -100%
NYC Election: Sliwa drops out and Cuomo wins? Oct 30 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Oct 30 $65 −$65 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Oct 30 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Oct 30 $84 −$84 -100%
Will DeWayne Davis win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Oct 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jazz Hampton win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Oct 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 30 $200 +$1,370 +685%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Shake Shack (SHAK) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 29 $50 +$10 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 3 Winner Oct 29 $4,699 +$2,551 +54%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $2,452 +$1,577 +64%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner Oct 29 $2,394 +$1,566 +65%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Oct 29 $2,006 +$1,391 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $702 25m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 13¢ $42 31m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $2,667 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $2 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $0 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $92 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $2 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $137 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp $51 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $513 2h
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,541 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $46,535 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 36¢ $14,000 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 $1,000 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $2,500 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 55¢ $1,000 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 62¢ $5,000 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 $200 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 15¢ $4 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 45¢ $500 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $255 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 63¢ $1,000 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $3,733 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 15¢ $26 231d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,036.37 · official $1,833.19 · 389 history records