trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +2.6% | -7.2% | 43% | 29% | -38.3% |
| ≤30d | 17 | +70.0% | +53.8% | 29% | 18% | +13.1% |
| ≤90d | 19 | +63.7% | +48.1% | 37% | 21% | +12.1% |
| all | 19 | +63.7% | +48.1% | 37% | 21% | +12.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +48.1% | 21% | +12.1% |
| 10% | +33.9% | 16% | +1.4% |
| 15% | +21.0% | 16% | -8.4% |
| 20% | +9.1% | 16% | -17.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 16¢ | $1,500 | $310 | −$1,190 (-79%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $100 | $91 | −$9 (-9%) |
| Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | $60 | $47 | −$13 (-22%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $25 | −$25 (-50%) |
| Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $50 | $20 | −$30 (-60%) |
| Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $50 | $17 | −$33 (-66%) |
| Will Hunor Kelemen be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $7 | −$3 (-33%) |
| Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $3 | −$17 (-85%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Jun 15 | $42 | +$42 | +101% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | Jun 12 | $2,009 | +$53 | +3% |
| Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Jun 10 | $52 | +$40 | +77% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect | Jun 09 | $2,065 | −$1,485 | -72% |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? | Jun 09 | $504 | −$93 | -18% |
| Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? | Jun 09 | $417 | −$208 | -50% |
| Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? | Jun 09 | $308 | −$66 | -22% |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 04 | $58 | −$58 | -100% |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? | May 27 | $332 | −$319 | -96% |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by December 31, 2026? | May 27 | $212 | −$203 | -96% |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? | May 27 | $112 | −$108 | -96% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | May 23 | $250 | +$4,448 | +1782% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? | May 17 | $495 | −$50 | -10% |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 16 | $83 | −$3 | -4% |
| Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 16 | $83 | −$80 | -96% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 16 | $83 | −$80 | -96% |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? | May 16 | $278 | +$9 | +3% |
| Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 15 | $445 | +$49 | +11% |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? | Apr 21 | $145 | +$15 | +10% |