Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:05:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9076…23c5 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% $0
other 21% +$4
politics 7% $0
sports 6% +$3
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.6% -8.0% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 12 -6.1% -15.0% 42% 8% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -6.1% -15.0% 42% 8% -9.7%
all 31 -4.8% -13.9% 52% 10% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 10% -8.6%
10% -22.1% 10% -17.3%
15% -29.7% 6% -25.3%
20% -36.5% 6% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage490d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $8 $0 +3%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $94 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $55 −$2 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $101 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $1 $0 +25%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $45 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich vs. Auckland City end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $1 $0 -31%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $22 −$5 -24%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 11 $25 $0 +1%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05? Mar 06 $13 +$12 +92%
Wisconsin vs. Minnesota Mar 04 $17 −$4 -26%
New Hampshire vs. Binghamton Mar 04 $8 +$9 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 56¢ $46 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $27 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $27 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $18 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $30 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $48 22h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $6 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $6 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $48 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $48 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $34 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $12 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $46 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.97 · official $47.56 (match) · 105 history records