Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9074…ea32 crypto 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$110 (+3%) realized +$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%42W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$126
14 days−$126
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$43
other 28% −$98
weather 18% −$44
sports 7% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -26.8% -33.7% 43% 14% -17.6%
≤30d 75 -0.9% -10.4% 56% 45% -12.1%
≤90d 75 -0.9% -10.4% 56% 45% -12.1%
all 75 -0.9% -10.4% 56% 45% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 45% -12.1%
10% -19.0% 41% -20.5%
15% -26.8% 29% -28.2%
20% -34.0% 23% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$27 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses42 / 33
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage34d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $328 +$24 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? Jun 24 $319 +$26 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24? Jun 24 $51 −$44 -86%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $238 +$108 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $464 −$230 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 06 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 06 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$9 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 06 $31 −$14 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 06 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 06 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 06 $63 −$43 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 06 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 06 $51 −$47 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $42 +$25 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $191 +$59 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 06 $53 −$23 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$19 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $20 +$21 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$45 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$58 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $42 −$13 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 05 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 05 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 05 $36 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 05 $103 −$23 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 05 $32 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 05 $77 −$19 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $36 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 05 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 05 $38 +$18 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 05 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 05 $67 −$67 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $353 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 93¢ $328 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $328 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 79¢ $268 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? SELL No 22¢ $17 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY No 64¢ $51 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $346 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $238 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL 37¢ $234 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 72¢ $201 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 72¢ $263 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 20h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 20h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 10¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $51 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $16 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $16 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $15 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $17 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $27 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 235 history records