Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:03:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9072…b92b crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -29.4% -36.1% 46% 46% -35.2%
≤30d 13 -29.4% -36.1% 46% 46% -35.2%
≤90d 13 -29.4% -36.1% 46% 46% -35.2%
all 13 -29.4% -36.1% 46% 46% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 46% -35.2%
10% -42.2% 46% -41.4%
15% -47.8% 38% -47.1%
20% -52.9% 15% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records