Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9072…b184 crypto 1062 markets active 13h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$245 (-11%) realized −$243 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%419W / 637L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$3
14 days−$22
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$155
sports 27% −$16
other 8% −$32
politics 3% −$65
economics 1% −$27
world 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -22.8% -30.2% 37% 35% -12.8%
≤30d 201 -9.7% -18.3% 42% 40% -16.2%
≤90d 521 -14.0% -22.2% 40% 39% -18.2%
all 1056 -11.9% -20.3% 40% 39% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 39% -21.5%
10% -28.0% 37% -29.0%
15% -34.9% 35% -35.9%
20% -41.3% 32% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$243
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses419 / 637
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1056 / 1062
History coverage271d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1056 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-26%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$6 +182%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$5 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$8 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +280%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 33h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $1 33h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 33h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 33h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 41h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $9 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 2d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.91 · official $13.91 (match) · 2239 history records