Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:55:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9070…e32c other 372 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (436 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$111 (+8%) realized +$61 · open +$50
Gross ROI / mkt +208% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +138% what you keep after slip
Net edge+138%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%44W / 35L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day435.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$71
14 days+$82
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$47
tech 14% +$11
politics 10% +$1
sports 10% +$28
world 8% +$3
culture 8% +$1
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (436 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+179.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +234.0% +202.2% 57% 49% +10.9%
≤30d 79 +208.5% +179.2% 56% 47% +13.2%
≤90d 79 +208.5% +179.2% 56% 47% +13.2%
all 79 +208.5% +179.2% 56% 47% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover435.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +179.2% 47% +13.2%
10% ← realistic here +152.4% 42% +2.3%
15% +128.1% 39% -7.6%
20% +105.7% 38% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +209% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +204% → late +213% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×4.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.47 per $1 lost it wins $5.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses44 / 35
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions469
Markets (closed)79 / 372
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day435.8
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 469 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Myles Garrett be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? Yes 37¢ $1 $15 +$15 (+2236%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions KT Wiz 41¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+3664%)
Will Mark Zuckerberg be 3rd richest person on December 31? Yes 33¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+492%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes $4 $6 +$2 (+40%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 48¢ 54¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will the Houston Astros have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 15¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+87%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $144 in June? No 58¢ 90¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+55%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $390 end of June? Yes 13¢ 50¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+288%)
Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0010 by December 31, 2026? No 42¢ 49¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30? Yes 22¢ 72¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+225%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? No 23¢ 28¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 53¢ 39¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will Zohran Mamdani release another song? Yes 18¢ 41¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+128%)
Will Ethiopia have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 13¢ 45¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+246%)
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bamin Real Potosí win on 2026-05-18? No 45¢ 66¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+46%)
ITF Changwon: Dayeon Back vs Su Jeong Jang Su Jeong Jang 50¢ 72¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat? No 33¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sui reach $1.80 before 2027? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $380 end of June? No 72¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Yes $1 $3 +$1 (+83%)
Will RISE launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tyler (Doubles): Martinez/Masur vs Manning/Shick Jun 17 $3 +$5 +194%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 17 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran Jun 17 $4 +$1 +27%
Bertrand vs. Hussey: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +133%
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Savannah Broadus vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 17 $1 +$1 +164%
Spread: Chile (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$4 +536%
Barton vs. Gombos: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $1 +$4 +411%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 17 $1 +$3 +398%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $1 +$2 +378%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 +$1 +135%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +116%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Jun 17 $0 +$2 +679%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 17 $0 +$3 +1235%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $0 $0 -1158%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Filippo Romano Jun 17 $0 +$1 +723%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 17 $0 $0 -1%
ITF Ljubljana: Gregor Hausberger vs Oleksii Krutykh Jun 17 $0 +$8 +5814%
Kazakhstan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $0 $0 -1386%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 17 $0 $0 -199%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 +106%
McDonald vs. Hijikata: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $0 +$4 +3537%
Spread: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5) Jun 17 $0 −$1 -718%
Spread: Bahrain (-1.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -128%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will Antonio Conte be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Stripe have the third highest private market valuation on June 30 Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Will Rodrygo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -71%
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -40%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -9%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m Jun 15 $1 $0 -69%
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -12%
Will Antonio Conte be the next manager of AC Milan? Jun 15 $0 $0 -44%
Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in June? Jun 15 $0 $0 +130%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $31 +$3 +10%
Will Jeremie Frimpong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -31%
Spread: CD Huachipato (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Deaglan McEachern win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic Jun 13 $0 $0 +6%
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 3 - 0 CD Cobresal? Jun 13 $1 +$8 +607%
Will Markéta Vondroušová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Dan Rooney be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 13 $1 $0 -23%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Jun 13 $8 +$3 +45%
Will Arya Azma win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $19 +$3 +15%
Exact Score: Audax CS Italiano 2 - 3 CD La Serena? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -79%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $113 +$8 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes $0 6m
Will Amy Klobuchar win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary SELL No $0 11m
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 25m
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 26m
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 23¢ $2 26m
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 32m
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 39m
Will Amy Klobuchar win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary BUY No $0 43m
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 52m
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 56m
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Vanta IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Vanta IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Vanta IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Valantis launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Valantis launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Valantis launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 1h
Vanta IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Vanta IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Vanta IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Vanta IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 1h
Vanta IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $56-$63 in June? SELL Yes $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Yann Sommer record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $2 1h
Will Lord Peter Mandelson Testify to Congress about Epstein? BUY Yes $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.75 · official $304.47 · 3500 history records