Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x906c…b60e crypto 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate46%50W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$12
world 4% −$46
other 3% −$43
politics 2% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +0.6% -9.0% 63% 37% -8.1%
≤30d 51 +0.6% -9.0% 63% 37% -8.1%
≤90d 108 -19.5% -27.1% 46% 34% -16.5%
all 108 -19.5% -27.1% 46% 34% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 34% -16.5%
10% -34.1% 25% -24.5%
15% -40.5% 23% -31.8%
20% -46.3% 18% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses50 / 58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage66d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$7 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $62 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$7 +649%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$38 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $98 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $34 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 249 history records