Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9068…e0d2 crypto 349 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$283 (+1%) realized +$276 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate59%204W / 142L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$181
14 days+$223
30 days−$1,541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$284
sports 4% +$267
crypto 3% −$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 20% -6.5%
≤30d 39 -12.6% -20.9% 36% 21% -16.0%
≤90d 300 -4.8% -13.9% 60% 32% -9.7%
all 346 -7.0% -15.9% 59% 35% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 35% -10.0%
10% -23.9% 24% -18.6%
15% -31.3% 18% -26.5%
20% -38.0% 14% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$68 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized+$276
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses204 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)346 / 349
History coverage92d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $219 $266 +$47 (+21%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $96 $56 −$40 (-42%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 74¢ 69¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 26¢ 31¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $300 +$30 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $500 +$15 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $186 +$337 +181%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $686 −$266 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,100 −$18 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $155 +$284 +183%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $2,216 +$86 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $1,046 +$56 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $195 −$57 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $122 +$332 +272%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $85 −$38 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $65 +$33 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $150 +$55 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $102 −$44 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $150 −$144 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $2,001 +$17 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $271 −$271 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $520 +$233 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $346 −$337 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $2,885 −$847 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $260 +$1,646 +633%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $746 −$746 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $552 −$552 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $182 −$182 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $468 +$318 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $329 −$60 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $230 −$219 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $4,000 +$348 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $271 +$509 +188%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $4,832 +$549 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $100 −$62 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $2,666 +$49 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $420 −$298 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $182 −$176 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $179 +$412 +230%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $199 +$215 +108%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $85 −$85 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 18m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $8 8h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 8h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $75 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $225 11h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $66 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $143 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $330 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $74 11h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $516 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $100 11h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $120 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $120 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $60 23h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $100 23h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $100 23h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $500 24h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $221 32h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $100 41h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $131 47h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $69 47h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $204 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $200 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $420 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $500 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.46 · official $331.43 (match) · 1508 history records