Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:36:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9060…d5c4 crypto 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$171 (-10%) realized −$170 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate70%131W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$188
sports 28% +$97
other 6% −$2
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -21.7% -29.1% 33% 33% -12.7%
≤30d 6 -21.7% -29.1% 33% 33% -12.7%
≤90d 188 -5.6% -14.6% 70% 37% -14.3%
all 188 -5.6% -14.6% 70% 37% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 37% -14.3%
10% -22.8% 15% -22.5%
15% -30.3% 10% -30.0%
20% -37.1% 8% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$170
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses131 / 57
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)188 / 190
History coverage44d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $89 $87 −$2 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? No 64¢ 90¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $423 +$109 +26%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 23? Jun 21 $50 −$4 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $21 −$6 -30%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $36 −$22 -60%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner May 17 $2 −$1 -66%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 $0 +14%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $3 +$3 +89%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 15 $2 +$1 +30%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 11 $1 +$7 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 11 $7 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +5%
Rainbow Six Siege: CAG Osaka vs Five Fears (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Salt May 11 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 11 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 11 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $11 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $7 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $532 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $11 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $16 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $37 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $14 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.78 · official $89.76 (match) · 516 history records