Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
90 0x9060…d8f0 other 180 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,735 (+1%) realized +$2,735 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%32W / 146L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1,792per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$35
14 days+$59
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$1,768
politics 39% −$168
sports 13% +$1,086
culture 2% −$9
economics 1% −$5
world 1% −$4
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 57 +8.4% -2.0% 12% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 148 -1.5% -10.9% 7% 5% -9.7%
all 178 +6.9% -3.3% 18% 13% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 13% -8.8%
10% -12.6% 13% -17.5%
15% -21.0% 12% -25.5%
20% -28.8% 11% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,563) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$8 · ×14.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$1,110
Realized+$2,735
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses32 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)178 / 180
History coverage126d
Avg bet$1,792
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $948 $947 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $162 $163 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,794 −$4 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,124 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,340 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,677 −$4 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $6,198 −$9 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,247 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,966 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $2,565 −$3 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 11 $1,351 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $5,272 −$6 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,645 −$6 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,244 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $10,277 −$12 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,588 −$4 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $71 +$69 +97%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,415 −$4 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $60 +$63 +105%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,348 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $930 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $67 +$70 +105%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,906 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $866 −$1 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $40 +$58 +146%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,016 −$5 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,025 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $89 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $7,842 −$10 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $3,458 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,427 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,836 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,539 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $1,182 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $2,194 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $4,010 −$5 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,173 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,127 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,169 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $2,133 −$3 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,712 −$3 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $2,386 −$3 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $43 +$55 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $948 19m
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $557 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $558 3h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $747 19h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $748 20h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,122 43h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,124 46h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,338 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,340 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,343 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,344 3d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,339 3d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,341 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,342 4d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,345 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,245 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,247 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,353 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,355 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,219 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,220 6d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $1,348 6d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1,351 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,338 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,340 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,354 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,356 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,243 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,244 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,411 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,109.74 · official $1,109.74 (match) · 645 history records