Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x905d…2c17 other 239 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$366 (-9%) realized −$366 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 225L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$45
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$168
politics 22% −$85
world 21% −$48
finance 10% −$37
tech 5% −$17
culture 3% −$8
economics 3% −$7
crypto 2% −$12
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -10.2% -18.8% 6% 0% -16.3%
≤30d 94 -11.7% -20.1% 1% 0% -17.7%
≤90d 163 -14.7% -22.8% 3% 1% -18.0%
all 239 -13.2% -21.4% 6% 0% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 0% -17.7%
10% -28.9% 0% -25.6%
15% -35.8% 0% -32.8%
20% -42.1% 0% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$366
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 225
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage225d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 25 $34 −$2 -6%
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Jun 25 $8 $0 -1%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $5 $0 -6%
Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -42%
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIF Jun 23 $18 −$2 -11%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 23 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $37 $0 -1%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 21 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 21 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $15 $0 -3%
Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027? Jun 20 $4 $0 -11%
Will Hurupay launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $11 −$2 -20%
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $6 $0 +6%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 19 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 18 $11 −$2 -18%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 18 $16 $0 -2%
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 17 $8 $0 -4%
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $42 −$1 -3%
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$3 -16%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -16%
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and He Jun 15 $28 −$2 -7%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -10%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $51 −$5 -11%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $12 −$2 -13%
Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 -16%
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 14 $12 −$2 -13%
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 13 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -19%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 -2%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 11 $14 $0 -4%
Will Pau Cubarsí score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $16 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 11 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 11 $7 $0 -4%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $39 −$1 -1%
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -40%
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? Jun 10 $11 $0 -1%
Will Ethereal launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $12 −$2 -17%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 10 $8 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 66¢ $33 1h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY No 69¢ $34 2h
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? SELL No 65¢ $8 3h
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY No 65¢ $8 3h
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 27h
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 27h
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 27h
Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 27h
Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 27h
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIF SELL No 33¢ $16 44h
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIF BUY No 37¢ $18 47h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc SELL Yes 25¢ $4 2d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $13 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $15 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL No 38¢ $19 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 40¢ $20 3d
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 52¢ $10 4d
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 56¢ $11 4d
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $14 4d
Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $15 4d
Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $15 4d
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $15 4d
Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 4d
Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 4d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $33 5d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 5d
Will Hurupay launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 733 history records