Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
90 0x905a…d4bc sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$71 (+20%) realized +$99 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+56.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +72.7% +56.2% 100% 100% +57.7%
≤30d 5 +72.7% +56.2% 100% 100% +57.7%
≤90d 5 +72.7% +56.2% 100% 100% +57.7%
all 5 +72.7% +56.2% 100% 100% +57.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +56.2% 100% +57.7%
10% +41.3% 100% +42.6%
15% +27.6% 100% +28.8%
20% +15.1% 100% +16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +74% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +73% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 30¢ 38¢ $40 $50 +$10 (+25%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 100 Thieves 25¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $57 +$55 +96%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $71 +$44 +62%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm Jun 21 $80 +$62 +78%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $46 +$34 +73%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $30 +$16 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $112 20m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 30¢ $41 20m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 21¢ $9 35m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 26¢ $30 49m
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 50¢ $57 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 100¢ $115 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 61¢ $71 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm SELL Marc Polmans 99¢ $142 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm BUY Marc Polmans 55¢ $80 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk SELL Aleksandar Vukic 100¢ $80 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk BUY Aleksandar Vukic 57¢ $46 4h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 99¢ $46 4h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 63¢ $30 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.08 · official $50.08 (match) · 13 history records