Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:13:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9057…02da crypto 807 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$467 (-7%) realized −$474 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%312W / 493L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$213
7 days−$297
14 days−$453
30 days−$466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$608
sports 11% −$251
other 6% −$111
politics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -34.1% -40.4% 31% 28% -30.9%
≤30d 180 -31.2% -37.8% 32% 29% -34.9%
≤90d 805 -18.7% -26.5% 39% 36% -23.6%
all 805 -18.7% -26.5% 39% 36% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.5% 36% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.5% 33% -30.9%
15% -39.9% 29% -37.6%
20% -45.8% 25% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$474
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses312 / 493
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)805 / 807
History coverage65d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 805 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 84¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+30%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Over 4¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 382 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $6 −$1 -14%
Spread: Croatia (-3.5) Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $72 −$71 -99%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $47 +$2 +5%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $6 +$1 +14%
Panama to score first vs. England? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 27 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$4 +114%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 $0 -6%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 −$1 -14%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $9 −$1 -14%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 $0 -6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 $0 -5%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $10 −$1 -8%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 27 $9 −$9 -97%
New Zealand to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $22 +$6 +25%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 +$1 +15%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 25 $4 +$4 +98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $14 −$3 -22%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $5 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $30 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 2h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $6 4h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 4h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 4h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $7 4h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 4h
Panama to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5h
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 11¢ $4 5h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $6 5h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Panama 1¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) SELL Ghana 5¢ $5 11h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 10¢ $4 11h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 26¢ $3 11h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.44 · official $42.44 (match) · 2355 history records