Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
90 0x9055…4336 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$7 (-4%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +10.6% +0.1% 71% 71% -8.8%
≤30d 7 +10.6% +0.1% 71% 71% -8.8%
≤90d 7 +10.6% +0.1% 71% 71% -8.8%
all 7 +10.6% +0.1% 71% 71% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 71% -8.8%
10% -9.5% 43% -17.5%
15% -18.3% 43% -25.5%
20% -26.3% 29% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$23 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$10 +51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$4 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 −$8 -52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $39 −$39 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $19 +$18 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $28 +$12 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 30m
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 72¢ $24 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $24 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $39 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $19 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 77¢ $30 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $9 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.05 · official $9.40 (match) · 17 history records