Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
90 0x9055…1f0c politics 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$163 (-0%) realized −$163 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,148per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$10
14 days−$21
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$57
other 38% +$63
sports 17% −$175
culture 1% −$4
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 84 -13.5% -21.7% 5% 1% -10.5%
all 111 -0.3% -9.8% 13% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 9% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 9% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 9% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,431) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$13 · ×5.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage107d
Avg bet$1,148
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,285 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,882 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $248 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $712 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1,181 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,102 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,096 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,345 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,827 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,228 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,130 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 04 $492 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $246 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 29 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $232 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $3,653 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,314 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $2,470 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $3,409 −$4 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 19 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $1,266 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,289 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,198 −$2 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,081 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $4,443 −$4 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,991 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,389 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $2,088 −$2 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,878 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $2,232 −$2 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,359 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2,723 −$3 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $4,488 −$4 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1,198 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,288 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $1,258 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $1,315 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $1,145 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $1,143 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $1,214 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $2,267 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $2,719 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 11m
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $243 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $684 3h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $685 5h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $247 8h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $248 9h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $357 28h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $358 31h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $712 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $712 3d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,179 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,181 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,209 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,211 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,021 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,022 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,023 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,024 7d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,095 10d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,096 11d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,344 12d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,346 12d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,343 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,345 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,027 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,028 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,270 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,272 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,226 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,228 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 335 history records