Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x904d…3d78 crypto 125 markets active 4d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-3%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate75%93W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% $0
other 12% $0
weather 5% −$6
world 3% −$1
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -7.8% -16.6% 74% 35% -17.0%
≤30d 124 -5.9% -14.8% 75% 35% -13.5%
≤90d 124 -5.9% -14.8% 75% 35% -13.5%
all 124 -5.9% -14.8% 75% 35% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 35% -13.5%
10% -23.0% 21% -21.8%
15% -30.4% 10% -29.4%
20% -37.3% 6% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses93 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +113%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -53%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +165%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 263 history records