Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x904d…a8a6 crypto 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%239W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$26
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$45
finance 2% −$19
other 1% +$1
sports 1% +$1
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 +1.0% -8.6% 98% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 244 +0.9% -8.7% 98% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 244 +0.9% -8.7% 98% 0% -8.8%
all 244 +0.9% -8.7% 98% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 0% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses239 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)244 / 246
History coverage11d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary by less than 10%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.70 · official $49.70 (match) · 491 history records