Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
90 0x904d…c966 other 114 markets active 2d ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$9
politics 35% −$13
sports 10% +$10
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
world 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -3.5% -12.7% 5% 3% -9.9%
all 113 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×10.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 104
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage109d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $131 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $159 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $173 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $291 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $172 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $146 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $128 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $158 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $258 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $135 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $155 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $169 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $159 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $120 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $138 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 05 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $168 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $144 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $273 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $120 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 02 $448 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $311 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $136 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $155 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $157 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $305 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $139 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $288 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $147 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $116 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $128 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 7d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 9d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $145 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $145 20d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 20d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $149 21d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $159 21d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $159 22d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $173 22d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $173 24d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $121 24d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $121 24d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $127 25d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $127 25d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $172 25d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $172 26d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $146 26d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $146 28d
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $169 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.01 · official $18.01 (match) · 324 history records