Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x904a…349b other 228 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%3W / 225L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$35
sports 22% −$19
politics 9% −$10
culture 6% −$5
economics 6% −$2
crypto 5% −$4
world 2% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 228 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses3 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)228 / 228
History coverage125d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 228 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $136 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $362 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $140 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $337 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $184 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $318 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $354 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 08 $473 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $278 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $171 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $119 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $235 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $118 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $212 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $348 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $309 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $122 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $507 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 4h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 6h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 10h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 12h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 14h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 16h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 16h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 16h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 17h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $51 19h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 21h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 23h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 25h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $51 26h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $51 28h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 32h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 33h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 38h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 39h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 40h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 41h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 44h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 45h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1287 history records