Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:04:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9048…d351 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$805 (+25%) realized +$1,003 · open −$198
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$647
other 7% −$74
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 43% +14.4%
≤30d 37 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 43% +14.4%
≤90d 37 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 43% +14.4%
all 37 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 43% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 43% +14.4%
10% -26.9% 43% +3.4%
15% -34.0% 35% -6.6%
20% -40.4% 32% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$42 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$1,003
Unrealized−$198
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage7d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Game Master 38¢ 16¢ $160 $65 −$95 (-59%)
Game Handicap: REF (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) Game Master 62¢ 29¢ $100 $47 −$53 (-53%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Game Master 37¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$17 +86%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$71 +140%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $284 +$245 +86%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $153 +$222 +145%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $101 +$29 +29%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $101 +$32 +32%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $146 −$143 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $101 +$60 +60%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$101 +197%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $503 +$114 +23%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $556 +$526 +95%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$77 +152%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $66 −$65 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$30 +146%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $27 +$43 +158%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -43%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$4 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 44¢ $61 55m
Game Handicap: REF (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) BUY Game Master 62¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 35¢ $51 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 37¢ $51 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 35¢ $51 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 53¢ $20 3h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 13h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 21¢ $20 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $51 13h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 67¢ $151 13h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 53¢ $101 15h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 40¢ $153 15h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 28¢ $31 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 26¢ $31 17h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 37¢ $44 18h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 37¢ $102 20h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 77¢ $101 20h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 75¢ $101 21h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 61¢ $51 23h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 62¢ $101 25h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 67¢ $101 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 27h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 81¢ $503 37h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $51 40h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Grey Trac $1 41h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 38¢ $31 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 33¢ $41 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.33 · official $114.45 · 68 history records