Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9047…2959 weather 205 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,264 (-3%) realized −$2,292 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate80%156W / 40L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$428per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$169
7 days+$73
14 days−$568
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 63% −$1,771
sports 19% −$417
other 17% −$415
politics 0% +$76
crypto 0% −$27
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -0.3% -9.8% 69% 15% -9.1%
≤30d 134 +6.2% -4.0% 82% 19% -9.3%
≤90d 196 +2.2% -7.5% 80% 18% -12.3%
all 196 +2.2% -7.5% 80% 18% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 18% -12.3%
10% -16.4% 10% -20.7%
15% -24.4% 9% -28.3%
20% -31.8% 8% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$643) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$161 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$2,197
Realized−$2,292
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses156 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions9
Markets (closed)196 / 205
History coverage67d
Avg bet$428
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $639 $652 +$13 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $600 $605 +$5 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $314 $315 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? No 99¢ 98¢ $146 $145 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? No 96¢ 98¢ $118 $120 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? No 93¢ 90¢ $120 $117 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? No 91¢ 100¢ $100 $109 +$10 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $762 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $600 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1,736 +$80 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$24 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $52 +$84 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $884 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $2,490 +$16 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $128 +$3 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $36 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$81 +519%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$41 +153%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $2,261 +$72 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $111 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2,042 +$24 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $461 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $922 +$29 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $335 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $736 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $506 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $818 −$8 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $210 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $448 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $162 +$29 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $462 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $722 +$14 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $334 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $123 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $294 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $383 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $72 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $775 +$42 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $549 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $504 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $277 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $21 +$27 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $146 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $120 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $774 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $34 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 68¢ $33 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $70 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 58¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $109 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $560 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $46 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $606 7h
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $32 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $762 18h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $108 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $314 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $600 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1,816 22h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $86 25h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $8 26h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $46 26h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 53¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 52¢ $30 26h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $600 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,197.45 · official $2,197.82 (match) · 1036 history records