Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9047…9683 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$225 (-20%) realized −$220 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$29
14 days−$65
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$163
sports 14% −$86
politics 5% −$5
crypto 2% +$14
world 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +24.0% +12.2% 75% 62% -15.1%
≤30d 19 -4.0% -13.2% 37% 32% -30.9%
≤90d 21 -7.6% -16.4% 38% 33% -30.6%
all 21 -7.6% -16.4% 38% 33% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 33% -30.6%
10% -24.4% 29% -37.2%
15% -31.7% 29% -43.3%
20% -38.4% 29% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$26 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$220
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage34d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $296 +$6 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $80 −$80 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +146%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Jeff Bezos buy the Seattle Seahawks? Jun 06 $169 −$126 -74%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 -2%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 03 $5 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$2 -16%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $6 $0 -5%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $121 +$21 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 34h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $91 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.95 · official $114.95 (match) · 136 history records