trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +24.0% | +12.2% | 75% | 62% | -15.1% |
| ≤30d | 19 | -4.0% | -13.2% | 37% | 32% | -30.9% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -7.6% | -16.4% | 38% | 33% | -30.6% |
| all | 21 | -7.6% | -16.4% | 38% | 33% | -30.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.4% | 33% | -30.6% |
| 10% | -24.4% | 29% | -37.2% |
| 15% | -31.7% | 29% | -43.3% |
| 20% | -38.4% | 29% | -48.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 69¢ | 68¢ | $70 | $69 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $50 | $45 | −$5 (-9%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $20 | +$14 | +70% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $20 | +$15 | +73% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $20 | +$13 | +62% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $296 | +$6 | +2% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $15 | −$15 | -99% |
| France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 | Jun 16 | $10 | +$8 | +79% |
| Spread: Spain (-1.5) | Jun 15 | $80 | −$80 | -99% |
| Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 | Jun 14 | $10 | +$11 | +105% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 | Jun 13 | $10 | +$15 | +146% |
| Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 | Jun 11 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 08 | $10 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 07 | $103 | −$6 | -6% |
| Will Jeff Bezos buy the Seattle Seahawks? | Jun 06 | $169 | −$126 | -74% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 03 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026 | Jun 03 | $5 | $0 | -3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $10 | −$2 | -16% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 02 | $6 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | May 19 | $61 | −$60 | -99% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? | May 18 | $121 | +$21 | +17% |