Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:46:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9044…f562 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$6
other 29% $0
politics 7% −$1
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +16.3% +5.2% 56% 11% -7.5%
≤90d 9 +16.3% +5.2% 56% 11% -7.5%
all 29 -1.0% -10.4% 52% 10% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 10% -10.6%
10% -19.0% 7% -19.2%
15% -26.8% 7% -27.0%
20% -34.0% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage454d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $4 +$6 +142%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $17 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $45 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $43 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $26 +$2 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $9 +$2 +20%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 24 $10 $0 -1%
Will FDP be part of the next German government? Apr 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in t Apr 24 $7 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 23 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 23 $3 +$3 +100%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 22 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Labrador Apr 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will 2 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $45 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $40 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $5 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $0 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $17 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $41 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $9 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $34 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 33¢ $16 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 33¢ $11 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 31¢ $9 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 31¢ $17 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 12¢ $7 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 12¢ $3 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $4 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $30 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $30 25d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $2 356d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records