Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9044…ef80 other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42 (-5%) realized −$44 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%22W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$51
14 days+$24
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$4
sports 16% −$56
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +20.3% +8.8% 71% 71% +13.9%
≤30d 34 +8.8% -1.5% 59% 59% -2.5%
≤90d 39 +8.4% -1.9% 56% 56% -10.9%
all 39 +8.4% -1.9% 56% 56% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 56% -10.9%
10% -11.3% 44% -19.4%
15% -19.9% 41% -27.2%
20% -27.7% 33% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses22 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage45d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 70¢ 88¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $45 +$21 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $90 −$43 -48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $78 +$11 +14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$18 +59%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$5 +162%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 +$13 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 +$3 +96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 −$74 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$25 +49%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$3 -48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$12 +166%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $27 +$4 +16%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $10 +$9 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 16 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$15 +145%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 09 $10 $0 -3%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 86¢ $27 2m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 43¢ $18 8m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $61 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $45 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 45¢ $27 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 48¢ $18 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $90 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 87¢ $78 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 78¢ $8 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 35h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.87 · official $4.18 · 80 history records