Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:11:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9043…63eb world 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate30%25W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$10
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$15
sports 16% −$10
other 12% −$10
politics 11% −$5
economics 7% +$1
crypto 1% +$2
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -4.9% -14.0% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 45 -2.9% -12.1% 27% 0% -9.8%
all 83 -3.9% -13.0% 30% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 1% -9.9%
10% -21.4% 1% -18.5%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses25 / 58
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 87
History coverage452d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $89 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $91 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $548 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $100 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $8 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $78 +$3 +4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $32 −$4 -12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $178 +$1 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $82 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $90 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $172 −$5 -3%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $23 −$2 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $206 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $89 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $132 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $141 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $88 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $87 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $188 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $271 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $111 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $93 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $84 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $85 −$6 -7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $184 −$2 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $101 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 17 $90 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $70 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $202 +$1 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $186 −$7 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $411 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $542 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $542 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $75 −$1 -1%
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) Mar 17 $23 −$2 -9%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $175 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $89 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $37 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $37 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $89 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $89 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $15 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $27 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $42 32h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $81 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $81 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $32 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $18 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $42 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $23 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.95 · official $89.16 (match) · 348 history records