Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:01:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9040…e9b0 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$14
other 11% −$13
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +0.9% -8.7% 42% 39% -9.1%
≤30d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 38% -11.2%
≤90d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 38% -11.2%
all 34 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 38% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 38% -11.2%
10% -18.4% 38% -19.7%
15% -26.2% 38% -27.5%
20% -33.5% 26% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage14d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva JiaYi Wang 61¢ 86¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlauka Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $10 −$2 -20%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $7 +$4 +55%
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov Jun 15 $7 −$5 -77%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $14 −$3 -19%
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
ITF Los Angeles: Kaylan Bigun vs Andrew Johnson Jun 14 $6 +$3 +46%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $4 +$3 +74%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $10 −$2 -21%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Stefano D'agostino Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
ITF Madrid: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Briyana Ivanova Jun 14 $18 −$6 -31%
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi Jun 14 $19 +$8 +40%
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li Jun 14 $9 +$6 +64%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $6 +$3 +46%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $16 −$9 -59%
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 13 $16 −$1 -4%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Kaja Juvan Jun 13 $10 +$6 +58%
ITF Nice: Alina Granwehr vs Jenny Lim Jun 13 $22 −$2 -8%
ITF Varnamo: Henry Bernet vs Sandro Kopp Jun 13 $12 +$9 +76%
ITF Hurghada: Martyna Kubka vs Gabriela Andrea Knutson Jun 13 $6 +$6 +95%
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Mai Hontama Jun 13 $11 −$1 -6%
ITF Tokyo: Mayuka Aikawa vs Ikumi Yamazaki Jun 13 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $4 +$6 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva BUY JiaYi Wang 61¢ $4 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 9h
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlauka SELL Viola Turini 66¢ $10 9h
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlauka BUY Viola Turini 67¢ $10 9h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Calvin Hemery 65¢ $8 11h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston SELL Anna Blinkova 51¢ $8 11h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 62¢ $10 13h
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro SELL Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 99¢ $10 13h
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 63¢ $7 15h
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov SELL Petr Nesterov 15¢ $2 15h
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov BUY Petr Nesterov 62¢ $7 16h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za SELL Renata Zarazua 98¢ $7 16h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Renata Zarazua 70¢ $5 17h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za SELL Maria Timofeeva 31¢ $5 17h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Maria Timofeeva 59¢ $9 25h
ITF Los Angeles: Kaylan Bigun vs Andrew Johnson SELL Kaylan Bigun 100¢ $9 33h
ITF Los Angeles: Kaylan Bigun vs Andrew Johnson BUY Kaylan Bigun 68¢ $6 34h
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 99¢ $6 34h
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 56¢ $4 36h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon SELL Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $4 36h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 39¢ $5 36h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Himeno Sakatsume 70¢ $3 38h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney SELL Alicia Dudeney 30¢ $3 38h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Alicia Dudeney 59¢ $7 40h
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef SELL Ashlyn Krueger 99¢ $7 40h
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef BUY Ashlyn Krueger 68¢ $5 41h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Stefano D'agostino SELL Sean Cuenin 89¢ $5 41h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Stefano D'agostino BUY Sean Cuenin 83¢ $4 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.07 · official $6.07 (match) · 74 history records