Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:06:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x903b…9dc9 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$87 (+8%) realized +$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$217
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +16.6% +5.5% 39% 39% -28.6%
≤30d 18 +16.6% +5.5% 39% 39% -28.6%
≤90d 18 +16.6% +5.5% 39% 39% -28.6%
all 18 +16.6% +5.5% 39% 39% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.5% 39% -28.6%
10% ← realistic here -4.6% 39% -35.4%
15% -13.8% 33% -41.7%
20% -22.2% 33% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +110% → late -77% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$56 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $57 −$52 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$102 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$54 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$77 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$54 +204%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$84 +828%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $56 +$19 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $157 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $180 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.90 · official $6.90 (match) · 54 history records