Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9039…6d00 sports 181 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%21W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$4
other 25% −$3
politics 24% −$3
world 6% −$1
crypto 5% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 181 -0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses21 / 160
Open positions0
Markets (closed)181 / 181
History coverage172d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 181 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $48 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $189 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 12 $92 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 11 $50 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $170 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 11 $82 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 10 $217 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $58 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 08 $137 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Mar 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 04 $124 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $103 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $112 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 01 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 01 $80 $0 -0%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 28 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 28 $136 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $167 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $54 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $364 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $213 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $131 −$1 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $171 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $48 1h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $48 7h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $48 13d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $48 13d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $51 26d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $50 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $47 39d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 39d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $49 106d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $49 106d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $50 106d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 106d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 106d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 107d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 107d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 107d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $41 107d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $41 107d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 96¢ $52 107d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 96¢ $52 108d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 98¢ $43 108d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 98¢ $43 108d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $43 108d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $43 108d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $44 108d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $44 108d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 108d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 109d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $46 109d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $46 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 673 history records