Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9034…f7df sports 528 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (229 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$79,577 (-95%) realized −$79,564 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%172W / 348L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day229.4pace
Fees−$791est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$2,434
crypto 13% −$1,955
other 10% +$172
finance 3% −$177
world 2% −$243
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (229 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 235 -19.2% -26.9% 34% 27% -10.0%
≤30d 520 -22.2% -29.7% 33% 27% -14.7%
≤90d 520 -22.2% -29.7% 33% 27% -14.7%
all 520 -22.2% -29.7% 33% 27% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover229.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.7% 27% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -36.4% 21% -22.9%
15% -42.5% 13% -30.3%
20% -48.2% 10% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$43 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$499
Realized−$79,564
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses172 / 348
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$791
Open positions6
Markets (closed)520 / 528
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$158
Trades / day229.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 520 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $210 $208 −$2 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $159 $158 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Las Vegas Aces 72¢ 72¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Over 76¢ 55¢ $34 $25 −$9 (-28%)
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $17 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,074 +$426 +40%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $171 +$29 +17%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $145 +$5 +3%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $175 +$145 +82%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $159 +$41 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,368 −$68 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,992 −$492 -25%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $792 +$31 +4%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $119 +$91 +77%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $2,114 −$57 -3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $7 +$53 +733%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $857 +$43 +5%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $111 +$23 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,124 +$3 +0%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $417 +$38 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $677 +$323 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $158 +$142 +90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $383 +$117 +31%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $815 +$185 +23%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $30 −$2 -6%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $8 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $63 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $24 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $52 −$8 -16%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 Jun 16 $134 −$134 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $308 +$91 +29%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $713 +$287 +40%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $149 −$149 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 72¢ $3 10m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 72¢ $4 26m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan BUY 2¢ $10 29m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Portugal vs. DR Congo en BUY 2¢ $10 36m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 72¢ $32 49m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 49¢ $11 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $212 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $161 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 3¢ $2 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 3¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 3¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 85¢ $171 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 6¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 90¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 90¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 90¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 90¢ $26 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 12¢ $6 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.21 · official $519.24 · 3500 history records