Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

90
0x9032…8717
sports · 74 markets active 8h ago
2.0score
+$229,221 +34%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$224,515 · open +$4,706
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$50,259
Realized+$224,515
Unrealized+$4,706
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses35 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$928
Open positions5
Markets (closed)69 / 74
History coverage89d
Avg bet$9,094
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 5 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16,110
7 days−$16,110
14 days−$16,110
30 days−$16,110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $41,085 $44,539 +$3,454 (+8%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 16¢ 21¢ $2,824 $3,598 +$774 (+27%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $850 $905 +$55 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 10¢ 17¢ $521 $893 +$372 (+71%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes $272 $324 +$51 (+19%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026? No $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 10¢ $260 $0 −$260 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? No 19¢ $171 $0 −$171 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes $1,030 $0 −$1,030 (-100%)
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 22¢ $9,425 $0 −$9,425 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $21,464 −$12,193 -57%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,422 +$28 +2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10,302 −$2,619 -25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1,061 −$1,030 -97%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $4,162 −$171 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $35 −$34 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $269 −$260 -96%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $15 +$2 +14%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15,653 +$192 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $937 −$24 -3%
Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30? May 01 $715 +$285 +40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $4,176 +$7,021 +168%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $16,000 −$193 -1%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $4,709 +$190 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 29 $5,203 +$320 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $2,731 +$3,571 +131%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $12,918 −$12,918 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 16 $351 +$137 +39%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $9,425 −$9,425 -100%
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026? Apr 10 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $370 +$532 +144%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 08 $64,600 +$19,788 +31%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? Apr 07 $234 +$216 +92%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges Apr 07 $5,129 −$4,506 -88%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $146 −$146 -100%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 06 $7,400 +$671 +9%
Spread: Celtics (-9.5) Apr 05 $105 +$4 +4%
Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Apr 02 $9,261 +$37 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 02 $380 −$14 -4%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31? Apr 02 $0 $0 +0%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by June 30? Apr 02 $0 $0 +0%
Will Denmark qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $297 +$303 +102%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $5,389 +$4,202 +78%
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals Mar 30 $1,605 +$399 +25%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 133.5 Mar 30 $1,055 −$36 -3%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 146.5 Mar 30 $5,613 +$1,743 +31%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 30 $12,381 +$87,968 +710%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 29 $40,281 $0 +0%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 29 $10,368 −$10,285 -99%
Will England vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Mar 29 $955 −$955 -100%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-6.5) Mar 28 $5,573 −$239 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 27 $8,830 +$1,711 +19%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 25 $57,363 −$178 -0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 25 $49,750 +$50 +0%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 23 $18,312 −$10,151 -55%
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 23 $9,771 −$9,771 -100%
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-4.5) Mar 23 $2,865 −$2,865 -100%
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-4.5) Mar 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% +$238,570
politics 15% +$3,540
other 9% −$8,229
tech 4% −$12,691
finance 3% +$4,475
world 0% +$3,557
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 100¢ $7,885 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No $36 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 12¢ $30 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 12¢ $544 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No $7 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes $21 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes $40 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes $116 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes $1 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes $2 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes $4 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes $28 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes $849 11h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 29¢ $29 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 29¢ $25 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 29¢ $207 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 29¢ $5 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 29¢ $13 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 29¢ $61 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 29¢ $61 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 29¢ $11 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 29¢ $52 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 32¢ $872 12h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 55¢ $92 13h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 55¢ $192 13h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 55¢ $14 13h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 55¢ $3 13h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 55¢ $1 13h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 55¢ $28 13h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 55¢ $122 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -46.8% -51.9% 30% 10% -37.9%
≤30d 10 -46.8% -51.9% 30% 10% -37.9%
≤90d 69 +9.7% -0.7% 51% 35% +23.1%
all 69 +9.7% -0.7% 51% 35% +23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 35% +23.1%
10% -10.2% 32% +11.3%
15% ← realistic here -18.9% 26% +0.5%
20% -26.9% 22% -9.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50,258.55 · official $50,259.07 (match) · 3500 history records