Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9031…15a0 other 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$31
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$39
sports 22% −$20
politics 8% −$5
culture 7% −$8
economics 7% −$7
crypto 4% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)249 / 250
History coverage133d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $681 −$2 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $322 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $163 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $336 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $383 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $268 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $707 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $514 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $134 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $435 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $464 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $145 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $68 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $577 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $151 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $597 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $144 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $149 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $396 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $319 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $396 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $1,143 −$2 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $143 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $264 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $516 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $254 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $292 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $456 −$2 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $272 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $363 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $125 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $63 40m
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 1h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 2h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 4h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $64 5h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 16h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 18h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $64 19h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $64 20h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $64 22h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $64 23h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 26h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 27h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $64 28h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $65 30h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 31h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 33h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $65 35h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $65 36h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 40h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 41h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 44h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 46h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $65 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $65 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 3d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.41 · official $63.41 (match) · 1372 history records