Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
90 0x9030…cf12 sports 393 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,500 (-10%) realized −$10,614 · open −$886
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%190W / 194L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$176est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$6,232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$377
14 days+$388
30 days+$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$13,176
other 36% +$1,736
world 20% +$717
finance 3% −$889
politics 1% +$125
crypto 0% +$4
culture 0% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +31.5% +19.0% 75% 75% -0.4%
≤30d 15 +12.4% +1.7% 67% 67% -0.6%
≤90d 40 -2.3% -11.6% 62% 40% -23.3%
all 384 -10.4% -18.9% 49% 42% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 42% -18.6%
10% -26.7% 39% -26.4%
15% -33.7% 36% -33.5%
20% -40.2% 32% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$147 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$6,232
Realized−$10,614
Unrealized−$886
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses190 / 194
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$176
Open positions9
Markets (closed)384 / 393
History coverage224d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? No 92¢ 96¢ $2,848 $2,949 +$100 (+4%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? No 86¢ 94¢ $898 $989 +$91 (+10%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 64¢ 62¢ $799 $769 −$30 (-4%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 80¢ 86¢ $543 $584 +$41 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $483 $487 +$4 (+1%)
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Under 58¢ 56¢ $423 $412 −$10 (-2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+27%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Yes 11¢ $1,100 $15 −$1,085 (-99%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $609 +$591 +97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $1,009 +$461 +46%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $403 −$398 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $401 +$209 +52%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $802 −$792 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $16 +$24 +146%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $197 +$103 +52%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $301 +$179 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +76%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 19 $7 +$3 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$7 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $102 +$186 +183%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $180 +$38 +21%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 27 $8,979 −$8,979 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 27 $126 −$126 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 09 $6,487 −$135 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 09 $9,941 +$250 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 09 $200 +$133 +67%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Apr 04 $7,126 +$91 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 04 $199 +$89 +45%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 03 $1,584 +$140 +9%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? Apr 03 $1,000 +$32 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 03 $1,168 +$56 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 03 $456 +$73 +16%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 02 $8,165 −$317 -4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Apr 01 $205 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 01 $366 +$33 +9%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Apr 01 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $770 +$53 +7%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $1,912 +$86 +4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 31 $5 +$3 +54%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Raptors vs. Jazz Mar 24 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 23 $5 +$2 +39%
Pacers vs. Spurs Mar 23 $6 +$1 +9%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 23 $200 −$200 -100%
76ers vs. Kings Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $231 1h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $197 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $796 4h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 50¢ $609 14h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 56¢ $403 16h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 18h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 68¢ $1,009 18h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $401 26h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $401 26h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $401 26h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $12 32h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 32h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $16 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $197 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $100 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $201 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $190 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $294 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 12d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 17d
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio BUY No 74¢ $7 17d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 15¢ $9 26d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY Yes 59¢ $6 26d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 78¢ $15 28d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 34¢ $34 34d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 35¢ $51 34d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 35¢ $16 34d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 49¢ $9 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,231.94 · official $6,232.01 (match) · 1190 history records