Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x902f…242f other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$35 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%27W / 3L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$472per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 44% +$9
world 29% −$7
tech 19% +$3
other 5% +$3
crypto 1% +$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 -19.3% -27.0% 80% 0% -9.4%
all 30 -3.0% -12.3% 90% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×14.83 per $1 lost it wins $14.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses27 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage136d
Avg bet$472
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $74 $73 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $12 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 29 $2,279 +$3 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 07 $29 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $330 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 17 $6,163 +$8 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $86 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 14 $470 +$4 +1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $219 +$1 +0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $214 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 04 $55 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $100 $0 +0%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $103 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 27 $60 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 26 $149 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $117 +$1 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 mi Feb 25 $81 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Feb 25 $12 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? Feb 24 $76 $0 +0%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Feb 24 $158 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 23 $21 $0 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Feb 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 16 $152 +$1 +0%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? Feb 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $90 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 08 $88 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $16 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $57 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $74 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $74 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $74 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $11 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $62 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $74 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $67 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $74 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $74 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $74 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $74 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $26 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $48 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $14 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $24 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $9 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $74 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $74 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $74 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.72 · official $85.72 (match) · 848 history records