Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

90
0x902f…86ab
other · 129 markets active 3h ago
1.0score
+$1,044 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,045 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$995
Realized+$1,045
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses43 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
Avg bet$980
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 1 History 128 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$25
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $996 $995 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,129 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,225 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,971 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,245 −$5 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,131 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $4,831 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $412 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $2,069 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $3,566 −$4 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,127 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,295 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 19 $551 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $2,085 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,247 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,215 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $1,252 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $3,701 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 01 $328 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $343 +$2 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $1,811 −$3 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,193 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,117 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,117 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $2,177 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,348 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,047 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,124 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 12 $1,652 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $2,903 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,668 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,574 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $7,791 −$8 -0%
Knicks vs. Rockets Apr 07 $1,041 +$1,083 +104%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5 Mar 27 $612 −$48 -8%
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Mar 27 $13 −$13 -100%
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Miami Hurricanes Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% +$117
politics 38% −$59
sports 12% +$1,025
culture 4% −$6
crypto 2% +$2
tech 1% −$2
world 0% −$33
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $996 2h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,127 2h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 5h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,017 26h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,019 29h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,089 5d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,091 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $949 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $950 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $888 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $890 9d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,129 9d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,131 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $872 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $873 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,141 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,143 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $820 12d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $821 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $703 15d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $704 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $706 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $706 16d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $703 16d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $704 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $558 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $559 16d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $412 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $943 19d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $944 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -8.5% -17.2% 13% 4% -9.0%
all 128 +6.3% -3.8% 34% 13% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 13% -8.8%
10% -13.0% 13% -17.5%
15% -21.4% 12% -25.5%
20% -29.1% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $995.02 · official $995.02 (match) · 373 history records