Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:37:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

90 0x902e…6752 world 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$389 (-12%) realized −$287 · open −$102

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate53%8W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$207per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$1,161now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$110

7 days−$110

14 days−$110

30 days−$110

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-32.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-16.1%	-24.1%	33%	0%	-16.7%
≤30d	3	-16.1%	-24.1%	33%	0%	-16.7%
≤90d	4	-16.6%	-24.5%	25%	0%	-17.9%
all	15	-25.1%	-32.2%	53%	33%	-24.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-32.2%	33%	-24.6%
10%	-38.7%	0%	-31.8%
15%	-44.6%	0%	-38.4%
20%	-50.1%	0%	-44.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 61% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% too few recent

Fragile wins

38% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -37% → late -14% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$54 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.1 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage

Net worth$1,161

Realized−$287

Unrealized−$102

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses8 / 7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage154d

Avg bet$207

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	64¢	59¢	$1,263	$1,161	−$102 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Jun 25	$200	−$68	-34%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia	Jun 25	$354	−$57	-16%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Jun 25	$832	+$16	+2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele	Apr 06	$220	−$40	-18%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Mar 24	$100	−$83	-83%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Mar 05	$20	+$2	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Mar 05	$1	$0	+12%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Jan 27	$20	+$2	+12%
Will Trump say "Egg" during Iowa speech?	Jan 27	$88	−$88	-100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	Jan 27	$50	+$6	+13%
US government shutdown Saturday?	Jan 27	$29	+$2	+6%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?	Jan 26	$20	−$20	-100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	Jan 25	$40	+$6	+16%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	Jan 24	$42	+$2	+4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Jan 22	$20	−$20	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	61¢	$429	1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	SELL Yes	22¢	$132	1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia	SELL Yes	59¢	$297	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	66¢	$847	14h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	SELL No	91¢	$848	14h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	92¢	$4	15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia	BUY Yes	68¢	$181	80d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele	SELL Yes	41¢	$180	80d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia	BUY Yes	71¢	$129	92d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	SELL Yes	1¢	$17	92d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	88¢	$117	92d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	88¢	$176	92d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia	BUY Yes	80¢	$44	111d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY Yes	7¢	$100	111d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele	BUY Yes	50¢	$220	111d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY Yes	32¢	$200	111d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	90¢	$23	111d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	SELL No	62¢	$22	111d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	90¢	$12	112d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	90¢	$500	120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	89¢	$1	135d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	SELL No	92¢	$22	148d
Will Trump say "Egg" during Iowa speech?	BUY No	44¢	$56	148d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	SELL No	89¢	$56	148d
Will Trump say "Egg" during Iowa speech?	BUY No	34¢	$31	148d
US government shutdown Saturday?	SELL Yes	77¢	$31	148d
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY Yes	73¢	$29	149d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?	BUY No	26¢	$20	150d
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	SELL No	37¢	$46	151d
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	BUY No	32¢	$40	152d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,160.94 · official $1,170.77 (match) · 190 history records