Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
90 0x902b…b91d crypto 584 markets active 4d ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$855 (+18%) realized +$855 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%319W / 265L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$72
14 days−$119
30 days−$317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$664
sports 1% −$12
other 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 -3.5% -12.7% 56% 52% -13.0%
≤30d 447 -11.6% -20.0% 53% 49% -17.6%
≤90d 584 -5.2% -14.2% 55% 51% +4.8%
all 584 -5.2% -14.2% 55% 51% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 51% +4.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 44% -5.2%
15% -29.9% 35% -14.4%
20% -36.8% 28% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$855
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses319 / 265
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)584 / 584
History coverage38d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 584 Trades
no open positions (195 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$6 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $50 −$25 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$9 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $27 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$9 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $28 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$15 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$17 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$8 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1841 history records