Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
90 0x9029…7c5a other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$33 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +471% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +397% what you keep after slip
Net edge+397%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$861
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+417.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +471.4% +417.0% 67% 67% +368.5%
≤30d 3 +471.4% +417.0% 67% 67% +368.5%
≤90d 3 +471.4% +417.0% 67% 67% +368.5%
all 3 +471.4% +417.0% 67% 67% +368.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +417.0% 67% +368.5%
10% +367.5% 67% +323.7%
15% +322.4% 67% +282.8%
20% +281.0% 67% +245.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +418% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +471% · $-wt +418% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$455 vs −$75 · ×6.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.14 per $1 lost it wins $12.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,211
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 12¢ 31¢ $65 $168 +$103 (+158%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $85 $8 −$77 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $51 +$450 +876%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $77 +$461 +599%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? Jun 27 $77 −$75 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 12¢ $67 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $87 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $77 6h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY Yes 8¢ $77 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,211.48 · official $1,211.48 (match) · 5 history records